Human Equivalence
July 10, 2007
One of the drivers behind technology development is the quest for human equivalence —the point where technology performs at a level of functioning that is equal to or greater than the functioning of the human brain. While it is speculative at best to estimate if and when such a goal is achieved, recent history illustrates that the increase in capability and capacity of technology is ramping up a rather steep slope. And if we are to trust the application of Moore's law, technology's prowess is doubling every 18-24 months. At that rate, it doesn't take much to project a future wherein technology is closing in on human equivalence.
As a trend develops it is useful to be able to track its progress and anticipate its trajectory. Choosing or crafting a set of markers that give indication of a trend's speed, depth, and scope as it gains influence and becomes an impetus for change is critical. While there are many markers from which to choose, the most durable and universally applicable sets concerns value added, particularly, where and how value is added.
The simple Wikipedia example about making miso soup from the above link is a good one to illustrate how advances in technology change the value-added equation. First, the value of the soup as the end product is comprised of the value added by the farmer to grow the raw product, soy beans, plus the value added by the processor to the soy beans to produce tofu, plus the value added by the chef to the tofu to prepare the soup. This "value package" utilizes a combination of equipment, input, labor, and know-how applied in various locations, stages, and timeframes—and is based on a specific capability and capacity level of technology.
What happens when technology develops further? There are several possibilities: the soy beans are grown in close proximity to the preparer; the yield of soy bean plants and desired quality and characteristics of the beans are increased; the equipment that harvests soy beans conducts post-harvest operations that condition the beans for making tofu; this equipment is smaller and more compact which accommodates localized production; methods of packaging, storing, and shipping soy beans or tofu are more integrated thereby consuming less energy and taking less time. In these instances, advances in technology are applied to the value-added equation dramatically altering the value package. The result is a system utilizing less costly and more productive equipment, requiring fewer inputs and less labor, and deeply embedding human knowledge and experience into new processes and tools. This has the potential to be transformational—and in relatively short order, too!
Continue reading "A Broader Framework in Which Localization Occurs"
posted by Steve Bosserman on Tuesday July 10 2007
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July 08, 2007
In response to my earlier posting about Localization, Bob Banner, publisher / editor of Hope Dance Magazine sent me an email noting that Julian Darley was the founder and director of the Post Carbon Institute. While James Howard Kunstler is an Institute Fellow, he has his own website that covers a wide range of related topics. Please note that my 6 July posting is now updated to reflect this correction.
Bob also mentioned in his email that Issue 62 of Hope Dance Magazine is "...a special issue we did on RELOCALIZATION that features BALLE, Judy Wicks, the PCI, Michael Shuman's Small-Marts, Local Living Economies, Bill McKibben, many book ad film reviews, a LOCALIZATION FILM FESTIVAL and more.. all in a tabloid of 56 pages." If you are interested in Localization, you will find this issue chock-full of useful information that can be quickly applied in a wide range of localities. Take a look!
In addition, he printed an extra 2,000 copies that are available in lots of 50 for $25, which includes shipping. If you be interested in hard copies for local distribution, please contact Bob and Hope Dance at this embedded link.
posted by Steve Bosserman on Sunday July 8 2007
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July 06, 2007
Over the past five months I have dedicated considerable attention to "localization." According to Wikipedia, "Localization may describe production of goods nearer to end users to reduce environmental and other external costs of globalization."
The Relocalization Network, which is affiliated with Julian Darley's Post Carbon Institute defines "relocalization" as "…a strategy to build societies based on the local production of food, energy and goods, and the local development of currency, governance and culture. The main goals of Relocalization are to increase community energy security, to strengthen local economies, and to dramatically improve environmental conditions and social equity."
Another way to consider localization is to see it as the shrinkage of distance between the point of production and the point of utilization or consumption. It is the conversion of bits and bytes into material form as close as possible to where that form will be used. In contrast, globalization is the virtualization of experience, knowledge, and innovation so that intellectual property created can travel from anywhere to anywhere quickly, easily, at minimal cost.
Continue reading "The Case for Localization"
posted by Steve Bosserman on Friday July 6 2007
updated on Sunday July 8 2007
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February 12, 2007
About 20 years ago, Craig Reynolds, developed an artificial life program entitled, Boids, that simulates the flocking patterns of birds. One of the compelling features of Boids is that despite random starting points and infinite range of action enjoyed by each boid, through adherence to three simple rules a consistent behavior pattern among the boids is quickly established and maintained.
Boids exemplifies a principle in complex adaptive systems termed "emergence." Emergence is a key concept in organization design. It has particular relevance when the issues of control, dependence, and autonomy in centralized and decentralized structures are recast into integrated structures such as networks, communities, and teams.
My previous posting, "Lessons from the Grid," focuses on distribution of responsibility and authority to generate electricity, by whatever type of renewable energy source, to individual homeowners and business owners. Net metering connections to the grid enable owners to sell excess electricity generated to the utility company and draw from the grid as necessary during times of insufficient electricity generated locally. This is a win-win solution: an expanding network of home and business owners, representing multiple families, neighborhoods, and communities, are actively involved; participants meet their individual and local needs, first, then, sell their surplus to meet regional and global demand; and, the localization of electric power generation through "green energy" is more efficient and consumes less "brown energy."
Continue reading "Boids, Integrated Structures, and Renewable Energy"
posted by Steve Bosserman on Monday February 12 2007
updated on Thursday January 26 2017
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A Broader Framework in Which Localization Occurs
July 10, 2007
A Voice for Localization
July 08, 2007
The Case for Localization
July 06, 2007
Boids, Integrated Structures, and Renewable Energy
February 12, 2007
Vectors of Disruption and Sea Changes
April 24, 2006
Getting Close to the Customer
March 05, 2006
A Philosophy of Solutions
September 18, 2005
Introduction to Social Agriculture
August 30, 2005
The Concept of Human Equivalence
August 29, 2005
Displacement and Globalization
August 26, 2005
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